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How far are we from the Bluetooth-enabled television?

Ming Cao?

Lately, I found my digital camera has a very good function: photos can be transferred to show directly on a television set. Although my laptop can also show the photos, it is more convenient for family members to see the photographs on a larger screen, like that of a TV. All family members could see the pictures easily with delightful discussion, and what an enjoying time! Now, when we played out back, one of my duties is connecting the digital camera to television. However, it is annoying looking around for the camera’s AV-out line. If Bluetooth application would be configured both on digital camera and television, it would be something that helps me a lot.

If that demand is not strong enough to supporting television fully integrated with Bluetooth, integrated Bluetooth can bring about a more practical advantage: wireless headphones. Sport fans often stayed late for watching TV. The most worrisome thing is disturbing families and neighbors. If television embedded with Bluetooth, it can help them to eliminate this trouble.

Therefore, if manufacturer introduces Bluetooth television, I think it would sell like hot cakes. Most of the LCD televisions are over ten thousands Yuan RMB in the market at present, while integrated Bluetooth applications cost less than 100 Yuan RMB, which would be a good differentiation from the mainstream products. When the market is full of price war and the profit is going to be none, do those vendors think about making money from value-added functions?

Of course, Bluetooth television is just one of the applications of Bluetooth. The potential capacity of Bluetooth is still far from played out. Currently, Bluetooth has been more common on cell phones, but penetration in the PC and consumer electronics fields is only at beginning. This limits the application of Bluetooth. For example, my mobile phone has Bluetooth, but I use it with limited times. The reason is that my PC, television, and digital camera have no Bluetooth functions.

Here is another example. Many cell phones have a function to take pictures, but many shots could merely be preserved in the cell phone without sharing with friends, because sending pictures as MMS will be charged. The more important thing is that there is no convenient way to download photos to PC and cell phone. Bluetooth can resolve this issue precisely to help PC users to download photographs quickly, and then email to a friend or upload to community forums. Come to think of it again, when you spread some photographs taken by a mobile phone to Bluetooth television, it is very attractive??

In short, Bluetooth can solve point-to-point data transmission problems at ease. The development is very influential for the future of digital home. In my view, the equipment interconnection between numbers of family is the first thing. The second step is framing a network. In the first step, short-range wireless communications technology, such as Bluetooth, will play an important role. Especially when Bluetooth and UWB combined together, it can be applied for revolution from speech communication, and low-rate data communications into a high bandwidth video transmission.

I believe that when Bluetooth are popular on television, the first phase of the digital home will come in.

The pattern of 3G competitive market depends on the balance between government’s support for the national standard and protection of equity invested

Wen Zhang

?3G licenses, which are being longed for nearly 5 years, will be released within this year in 2006. With the initiation of 3G, the pattern of telecom operation market in China will be shuffled. And it is considered as the biggest transformation in recently years. The core issue with most concerns is: How is the competitive pattern? Which factors will determine the trend of future market?

Firstly we will focus on the competitive pattern in the future. This pattern will be determined by the maps of both organization and technology.

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The maps of organization determine the time and form in which 3G license will be released

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The Chinese government strongly support developing national TD-SCDMA standard and fostering its competitive capacities. The excessive investment on NGN may cause great loss of state-owned asset. Considered preventing redundant investment and the risk of overheated economy which might happen, the administration of government will release 3 licenses, not 4 licenses as it was planed at first. Meanwhile, everyone has the license are considered that they already has a 2G network. Undoubtedly, forging full service operators is a key point to the government, who is aiming to strengthen the subscriber base and increase the finance, then compete with the operators abroad. Therefore, the release time and form of the 3G licenses are subject to these principals. And the maps of the organization are determined by these factors as well.

The maps of organization determined that there are 2 ways of releasing licenses. One is that China Mobile will get licenses of WCDMA and TD-SCDMA; China Telecom will get China Unicom’s CDMA network; China Unicom retain the GSM network and operate WCDMA and TD-SCDMANetwork; China Netcom will get TD-SCDMA license. The other one is, China Netcom and China Unicom will merge together and operate WCDMA and TD-SCDMA network. No matter which map it will, we could see that TD-SCDMA will take a key position in the future market in China..?

The maps of technology are determined by the mature and acceptance of technology?

Firstly, we could analyze the tech-adopting circumstance over the world. By the end of 2005, there are 59 WCDMA operators, and 27 CDMA2000 operators in the world. How is the acceptance of WCDMA and CDMA2000 in China? Where is the position of TD-SCDMA? For Chinese government, protecting state-owned assets is the first priority factor deciding which technology will be chosen. In-Stat believe that, WCDMA will account for 65% of the whole market in 2010, while CDMA2000 and TD-SCDMA has 20% and 15% shares in the market respectively. ?

Chart 1 3G subscriber base forecast in 2010, breakdown by technology standards

Source：In-Stat 3/06?Maximizing the benefit of 2G network investments is not only the focus of the government, but also the investors. 3G network must have good compatibility with 2G network, so as its service could be upgraded smoothly. In this sense, WCDMA is the best option for Chinese 3G standard. In order to get competitive advantages in 3G services, launching network promptly and covered widely turn out to be important. Providing a wide range of coverage in a short time could leading the market, and this help to coverage in depth, provide more value added services and applications. From the perspective of eco-system, WCDMA gains most supports around the world compared with other technology standards. In WCDMA value chain, more equipment vendors and operators are engaging in. This means that competition could bring decrease in price and quality improved. If Chinese operators choose WCDMA, there will be impressive economic benefit.??Meanwhile, in order to protect national standard, Chinese government spare time for TD-SCDMA to develop value chain. More and more equipment vendors got involved in it in 2005. The commercial pace of TD-SCDMA standard speeded up last year. The compatible test and connection between handset and network have been finished. In the whole world, almost all operators adopted WCDMA and CDMA2000 and it is few possible to choose TD-SCDMA. Only in China there is a chance for TD-SCDMA to develop, and that depends on the alternative handsets, multi-standard compatibility, and roaming capacity.?

Chart 2 The owners analyze of TD-SCDMA intellectual Property

Source：In-Stat 3/06?

In all, analyze all the factors we could conclude that, the government’s attitude is on the first place. As an industry invested by state-owned assets and a biggest economy traction industry, telecom industry need not only create national standard but secure state-owned assets and the interests of shareholders. Secondly, it is that the maturity and acceptance of the 3G technology in the world will determine the leading position of WCDMA.

Who will win the digi-home market in China?

?WeiLi Zhang

The concept of digi-home is getting hot recently. According to In-Stat’s forecast, revenue of global digi-home market will reach $20 billion in 2009, and the Asia-Pacific region will be the fastest growing market, including China market, which CAGR is 30%. It is estimated that 37 million families in Asia will use digi-home application through their home network in 2009. Actually, “digi-home” is mentioned so many times by more and more people this year under different circumstances in China. Chip venders such as Intel and TI launched their solution system; Linksys,?? D-link and other network equipment venders are trying to enter the low-end family market; venders including Haier and TCL launched their family multimedia center; and entertainment operator Shanda released its Shanda box this July. It seems that the industry value chain of China digi-home market has formed out. However, In-Stat believes that there are two key factors will help to form a energetic eco-system of digi-home in China. They are the amount of subscribers and network capacity for digi-home’s application.?

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Only the telecom operators in China could solve two problems.??

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Operators have the precious resources including the subscribers and networks which the others do not have, as we mention above. A certain mount of subscribers will bring stable revenue, which means the cost will decrease as the scale increase, and know customer demand deeply. So chip vendors and equipment vendors are eager to invite operators to cooperate with them. While content and service providers are lack of channel on the network. Through digi-home’s 3 developing phases, from sharing bandwidth at the beginning, and the demand to content, to realizing intelligent home and remote controlling later, operators’ network and QoS are needed all the time. Therefore, operators are playing an very important role in the whole digi-home eco-system.?

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What does the digi-home mean for operators??

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Meanwhile, domestic operators also need digi-home market to help their transformation in market and their development, especially broad band network operators. In the transformation, operators are trying to spread their services vertically. In vertical industry market, operators want to provide series of data, voice, and video service. But confronting with their former clients, operators do not have enough experiences to run the service, so resistances in the industry are inevitable. Instead, if operators turn to yield a new family market, using broadband access, providing with secure services, multimedia contents, further remote controlling and etc., Taking these measures could help operators spread their value chain and easily carry out transformation in market.??

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Will operators take the monopoly market in the future?

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In the industry value chain there are still potential competitors. Taking entertainment operator Shanda for example, since it allied with Universal Entertainment as strategic partnership in April 2005, to launch Shanda Box in July, it takes measures one after another aiming for family digital entertainment market. Through this Shanda could win the huge family market in China. If operators wish to avoid the situation happening, there should be some drastic measures taken at once.?

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Above all, In-Stat believes that China operators are in key role in the digi-home market. The shaping and developing of digi-home industry value chain need contributions of operators. At the same time, the chance they bring in could increase profits for operators, and it will help operators’ transforming into value-added service providers. Besides, potential competitors’ threat also forces operators to carry out as soon as possible.

11月9日，深圳，我公司成功举办了"In-Stat展望2008:新技术与市场峰会"。现将现场博客实录及现场视频资料发布在网站上，您可免费下载，了解会议现场内容。

北京，2007年11月22日：手机电视是继数字地面电视之后的，传统电视向其他接收终端的又一次延伸。2006年的中国电视家庭用户是3.6亿，而另一方面手机用户接近5亿。两个行业发生的碰撞，产生的不仅仅是火花，而是强烈的地震。

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